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Create and compare scenarios

Use a scenario project to see how changed inputs affect a forecast. Keep the original forecast as your baseline: the starting point for each comparison. This guide shows how to create a project, add a scenario and compare results.

Before you start

You'll need a completed Train and predict run with at least one known input you can change. This could be a planned price or promotion. You can't create a scenario project from a forecast with no known inputs.

Make sure those inputs have values for the full forecast period. Decide which series and dates your change should affect.

Create and compare scenarios

  1. Open Projects and select Project.
  2. Name the project, choose a completed run that meets the rules above and submit. Its forecast becomes the project's baseline.
  3. Open the new project and select Create scenario.
  4. In Basics, name the new scenario and check its source.
  5. In Conditions, add a change to a known input. Choose the variable, series and date range.
    • For a number, choose Relative to change it by a fraction. For example, 0.10 raises a value by 10%.
    • Choose Absolute to set a number to a fixed value.
    • For a category, choose the category change you need.
  6. Save the condition. Check the variable, values, series, dates and source run. Select the confirmation checkbox and Create scenario.
  7. Open the linked run to track its progress. Wait until it's completed. You can only compare completed scenarios.
  8. Return to the project and select the scenarios to compare. Select Compare selected (n). The baseline is always included.
  9. Use the series, target, graph and table controls to review the results. Select Change scenarios to choose a different set. Your choices stay selected when you return to the project.

Check any conditions that affect the same values. They run in the order shown. A later change can replace an earlier one.

The scenario doesn't copy an external output location from its baseline. To save forecasts outside Forecast, enter a location in the scenario's Output step.

What you get

You can compare each selected scenario with the baseline for the same series and target. The baseline stays unchanged. Each new scenario has its own forecast run.

Use clear names so others can tell which input changes you compared.

Next step

Open a scenario's results once its run completes. Or return to the project to compare other scenarios. For change types and advanced settings, see Scenario reference. For the next steps, see Find and monitor a run or Review forecast results.